The US Open men’s singles draw released Thursday put Alexander Zverev on the top line, a player who has never been ranked No. 1, and gave the No. 2 seeding to a defending champion who has not played a competitive match since April. Both facts trace to the same cause. Jannik Sinner withdrew last week with a right knee injury, and the board reordered itself around the absence.
Zverev’s claim to the top seeding is stronger than the shorthand allows. The German won his first major at Roland Garros in June, beating Flavio Cobolli in five sets, then reached his first Wimbledon final, losing to Sinner. He had already reached the semifinals in Melbourne, going out to Carlos Alcaraz in a match lasting five hours and 27 minutes. He is the only man to have reached the semifinal stage at all three majors this season. The ATP puts his Grand Slam record for the year at 18-2.
The complication is everything since. Zverev lost in the first round in Toronto and reached the fourth round in Cincinnati, where he held a match point against Tommy Paul and lost. He arrives with the best major-tournament season in the field and the least convincing recent form of anyone near the top of it.
The top half. Zverev opens against Lorenzo Sonego. He is seeded to meet sixth seed Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, with Rafael Jodar and Casper Ruud also in that section. Third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime and fifth seed Cobolli share the half, and Cobolli is seeded to meet Taylor Fritz in the fourth round. Fritz begins against 18-year-old compatriot Darwin Blanch, while Auger-Aliassime plays Rinky Hijikata in a section that also holds Learner Tien, Jakub Mensik and Gael Monfils.
The bottom half. Alcaraz sits at the foot of the sheet and opens against Roman Safiullin. He has not played since beating Otto Virtanen in Barcelona on 14 April, the wrist forcing him out of the tournament before his second-round match. Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros, Queen’s, Wimbledon, Canada and Cincinnati all followed him onto the missed list. The projected path runs through Arthur Fils or Ben Shelton and then Novak Djokovic, with whom he is level at 5-5 in their head-to-head series. Djokovic is seeded to meet Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals.
What the sheet is measuring. Seedings at Flushing Meadows follow the ATP rankings published on 24 August, and those rankings are a 52-week ledger of results already banked. They are not a readiness index. In most years the two things track closely enough that the distinction does not matter. This year they have come apart. The top seed carries the strongest major-tournament record in the draw and the weakest hard-court month. The second seed carries a title, 2,000 points to defend and no match play at all. The player who would have been favoured is not in the building.
Main draw play begins Sunday. The men’s final is scheduled for 13 September.
