Update — Aug. 23, 2026: Today is the last day the board can move. The Cincinnati finals — Frances Tiafoe against Arthur Fils not before 4:30 p.m. ET, Coco Gauff against Jessica Pegula not before 7 p.m. — are the final results to enter the rankings before Monday’s cutoff. No seed order should be treated as settled until those two matches are complete.
Update — Aug. 22, 2026: The projected men’s seeding order is now clear, and it is not the one the note below implies. With Jannik Sinner out, Alexander Zverev is projected as the No. 1 seed, Carlos Alcaraz No. 2, Felix Auger-Aliassime No. 3 and Novak Djokovic No. 4. Alcaraz is the world No. 2 today but is projected to drop to No. 3 on Monday when the points from his 2025 Cincinnati title come off, which is what puts Zverev at the top of the board rather than Alcaraz. Clarification: the Aug. 21 note below states that Sinner’s withdrawal makes Alcaraz the highest-ranked man in the field. That was accurate at the moment of filing but does not describe the seeding order that takes effect Monday. Flavio Cobolli is projected at No. 5 and can pass Djokovic by reaching the Cincinnati final. The Monday, Aug. 24 cutoff is unchanged, and no seed list is official until the ATP and WTA rankings publish that morning.
Update — Aug. 21, 2026 (evening): The men’s board changed after this article was published. Jannik Sinner withdrew from the US Open on Friday morning with a right knee injury, which removes the world No. 1 from the men’s draw entirely and makes Carlos Alcaraz the highest-ranked man in the field. Correction: this article as originally filed described a men’s seeding picture that assumed Sinner’s participation. That assumption no longer holds. The Monday, Aug. 24 cutoff itself is unchanged, and the official seed list still does not publish until after the Cincinnati final. On the men’s side, Friday’s quarterfinals also sent Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe into an all-American semifinal, with Nakashima guaranteed a career-high ranking on Monday.
The last competitive tennis that will affect the US Open seedings is being played this weekend in Mason, Ohio. The cutoff for both singles draws is Monday, Aug. 24, the final ranking release before the tournament, which means the Cincinnati Open semifinals and finals are the last results that can move anyone up or down the board. After Monday the numbers are fixed, and the official seed list arrives with the draw on Thursday, Aug. 27, three days before the main draw begins on Aug. 30.
Thirty-two players are seeded in each singles draw, which means no seed can meet another before the third round and the top eight are protected from each other until the quarterfinals. It is the single most consequential piece of administration in the fortnight before a major, and unlike the draw itself it involves no luck at all. It is arithmetic, applied on a fixed date.
At the top of the women’s board, the question closed on Thursday night. Aryna Sabalenka, who has held the No. 1 ranking since October 2024, is projected to be the top seed at a major for an eighth consecutive time. That was in doubt for roughly 24 hours. Her round-of-16 loss to Sara Bejlek left Elena Rybakina two wins from the top of the rankings, and reaching Sunday’s final would have made the Kazakh the top seed in New York. Rybakina retired from her quarterfinal against Iga Swiatek with a left ankle injury after 31 minutes. She is projected to be seeded second. The race that ran all summer ended without a decisive match being completed.
Below that, movement is still live. Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are projected third and fourth, the highest pair of American women at a major since the seeding formula last favored them this heavily, and both are still in the Cincinnati draw or were as of Friday morning. Pegula is into the semifinals. Gauff plays Marta Kostyuk in Friday’s quarterfinals, and Madison Keys plays Bejlek. Every one of those matches carries seeding consequences, if only by a place or two, and a place or two is the difference between a projected fourth seed and a projected fifth — which is the difference between a quarterfinal against the No. 1 seed and a semifinal.
Two names that would have been seeded will not be there at all. Victoria Mboko, comfortably inside the seeded range, has not played since injuring a knee in June and is out. Emma Raducanu withdrew earlier this month. Each withdrawal pulls one player from outside the top 32 into the seeded group, which is why the bottom of the board can shift without anybody winning a match.
The men’s cutoff falls on the same Monday. Jannik Sinner is projected to be the top seed, having skipped both Canada and Cincinnati with a knee problem while retaining a ranking lead that no one else could close in his absence. The order immediately behind him is not settled across the published projections, and GTN is not printing a numbered men’s list until the ATP ranking is released. What is clear is that Carlos Alcaraz, who has confirmed his title defense without a warm-up event, will be seeded near the top on ranking points he has not defended since April, and that Flavio Cobolli and Arthur Fils, who meet in Saturday’s Cincinnati semifinal, are both playing for seeding positions as well as a first Masters 1000 final.
One caveat belongs on every seeding projection published this week, including this one. These are live-ranking calculations, not the official list. They assume no further withdrawals, and there have been withdrawals from the US Open entry list almost daily. The entry list has already turned over several times, and at least one wild card position remains a live question. A player who pulls out on Tuesday changes numbers that looked locked on Monday.
For an American audience the practical read is simple. The American contingent arrived in Cincinnati with more seeding upside available than at any point this summer, and it has largely taken it. What remains is four days of tennis and one ranking release. GTN will update this page in place when the official seeds are published.
