Elena Rybakina’s Wimbledon has ended in the third round for a second-year running, the 2022 champion falling to Belgium’s Elise Mertens 7-6(4), 6-1 on Saturday in the biggest upset of the tournament’s first week. Seeded second, Rybakina was the highest-ranked woman to exit, and her defeat carried a ranking consequence — it guarantees Aryna Sabalenka will remain World No. 1 after the fortnight.
A surface that stopped rewarding her. Rybakina’s flat, powerful game and one of the heavier serves in the women’s draw have long profiled as grass-friendly, and the 2022 title at the All England Club remains the signature result of her career. But she has not advanced beyond the third round in either of her past two visits, and the warning signs came early this year. She lost in the first round in Berlin and the second at Queen’s during the grass swing, arriving in London without a run of matches behind her.
The match. Mertens, the 25th seed, had lost seven of eight career meetings with Rybakina, the exception coming in Madrid in 2021. On Saturday the Belgian broke twice early, weathered two comebacks to force the opening set to a tiebreak, then ran away with the second. Mertens, a two-time Wimbledon doubles champion, equaled her best singles showing at the tournament and next plays 21st-seeded Marie Bouzkova.
No easy explanation. Rybakina, the reigning Australian Open champion, has now paired a Grand Slam title in January with early departures at the two majors since — a second-round loss at Roland Garros, then Saturday’s defeat. Pressed on the cause, she offered none, saying she would study her form before the hard-court swing. “If I knew why, I wouldn’t be in this situation right now,” she said.
What it means. The result added to a turbulent day in the upper reaches of the women’s draw, which also saw defending champion Iga Swiatek beaten by Alexandra Eala. For Rybakina, the more pressing read is seasonal. The results that built her reputation came on quick surfaces, and the stretch that has historically suited her best — the North American hard courts leading to the US Open — is next. Whether the reset she says she needs arrives in time is the question that follows her out of London.
