For the first time in tournament history, the Mutua Madrid Open will stage a women’s semifinal lineup without a single player from the WTA’s top eight seeds, after world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka’s stunning quarterfinal exit to American Hailey Baptiste on Tuesday completed one of the most dramatic collapses of favorites the women’s tour has seen in years.
Sabalenka, the defending champion and a three-time winner at the Caja Mágica, squandered six match points before falling 2-6, 6-2, 7-6 (6) to the world No. 30 in a contest that stretched two hours and 30 minutes.
The Belarusian had taken the opening set without difficulty and looked en route to a routine quarterfinal win, but Baptiste broke twice early in the second to swing the match’s momentum and never relinquished her grip on it through a chaotic decider.
The defeat ended Sabalenka’s 15-match winning streak and snapped a run of seven consecutive WTA Tour events claimed by their top seeds, a streak that began at Indian Wells.
Sabalenka’s loss capped a week in which the entire elite tier of the women’s draw was systematically dismantled. Second seed Elena Rybakina was the first major casualty, beaten 7-6 (6), 6-4 by lucky loser Anastasia Potapova in the round of 16.
Third seed Coco Gauff fell in the same round, edged 4-6, 6-1, 7-6 (5) by Czech 13th seed Linda Noskova. Fourth seed Iga Swiatek and fifth seed Jessica Pegula both departed earlier than expected, while seventh seed Elina Svitolina and eighth seed Jasmine Paolini were also shown the door before the quarterfinals.
Ninth seed Mirra Andreeva is now the lone representative of the top 10 still standing in Madrid, having survived a two-hour, 53-minute battle with Hungary’s Anna Bondar in the round of 16 before progressing through the quarters.
With Sabalenka out, at least one of Sunday’s finalists is guaranteed to be ranked outside the world’s top 10 — an outcome unthinkable when the draw was unveiled less than two weeks ago.
The damage extends well beyond Madrid itself. Sabalenka, who was defending 1,000 points from her 2025 title run, has dropped 785, leaving her ranking total at 10,110. Gauff, who was defending runner-up points from last year, has slipped behind Swiatek to fourth in the live rankings. Baptiste, meanwhile, will rise eight places after the biggest victory of her career, her first over a top-five opponent.
Attention now turns to a semifinal field featuring Baptiste, Potapova, Noskova and Andreeva — a quartet few would have predicted, on a clay swing that has suddenly thrown the rest of the European season wide open.
