Aryna Sabalenka moved into the second week at Wimbledon on Friday with her most efficient performance of the fortnight, dispatching Jelena Ostapenko 6-4, 6-4 with just six unforced errors. The world No. 1 has reached the fourth round without dropping a set. She has also arrived, once again, at the stage where her grass-court story has repeatedly stalled.
The one that got away Sabalenka has reached the Wimbledon semifinals three times — in 2021, 2023 and 2025 — and lost on each occasion. It is the only Grand Slam where she has never played for the title. She has contested finals at the Australian Open, Roland Garros and the US Open, leaving the All England Club as the conspicuous gap on an otherwise complete résumé of deep major runs.
A hard-court empire All four of Sabalenka’s major titles have come on hard courts: the Australian Open in 2024 and 2025, and back-to-back US Open crowns in 2024 and 2025. The surface that rewards her flat, first-strike power most reliably is not the one beneath her feet this week. Grass compresses those margins, forcing lower contact points and quicker exchanges that leave less room for the clean ball-striking that defines her best tennis.
The 2025 near-miss Last year’s semifinal underlined the pattern. Sabalenka lost 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 to Amanda Anisimova, who was playing the tournament of her life. The defeat came amid a season of final-round heartbreak — runner-up in Melbourne to Madison Keys, runner-up in Paris to Coco Gauff — before Sabalenka steadied at Flushing Meadows, beating Anisimova in the US Open final to salvage the year’s only major. Everywhere but Wimbledon, she found a way through.
A question of margins Her three semifinal defeats have come against opponents who absorbed her power and redirected it rather than trading blow for blow, a template grass tends to reward. Sabalenka has spoken often about managing her emotions in tight moments, a lesson she credited after the Paris loss. On a surface where a single loose service game can settle a set, that composure is tested in ways the slower courts do not demand.
What’s ahead A fourth Wimbledon semifinal is two wins away, but the immediate obstacle is a familiar kind. Sabalenka meets Naomi Osaka in the round of 16 on Sunday, a pairing of two former hard-court major champions on the surface that has flattered neither. For Sabalenka, the second week offers another chance to reach the final weekend that has so far eluded her.
